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  • sanju
    05-16 09:42 AM
    No this is not correct. If consultancy companies are not there we could find a permanent job. I do not think if H1b is banned for consulting H1b numbers will be reduced so much. H1b rotation will be reduced. But still TCS, Infosys will survive as they have lot of other options like L1 and B1.But US persons will make more money in consulting as there is no restriction for them. So impact is minimal for US companies and also H1B persons. impact will be severe for bodyshoppers. Also current H1b people will not be impacted as most of them will file I 485 as Skil bill be passed. But H1b abuse will be minimised.

    If consultancy companies are not there we could find a permanent job.

    oh really!!! Your argument is exactly the same arguments used by lazy and undeserving members of IEEE-USA who simply want to eliminate their competition from the younger and more dynamic engineers from the other parts of the world. They also think that if H-1B folks will not come they will get all the jobs and their rate will go from $100/hr to $200/hr. You seem to think that Durbin-Grassley bill will create more permanent jobs for you. Why is there such a strange similarity between yours and IEEE-USA's thinking?

    Companies will survive and they are good with that. Let’s worry about our survival rather than the survival of TCS, Infy etc.


    But US persons will make more money in consulting as there is no restriction for them...... impact will be severe for bodyshoppers.

    Again, strangely enough, your views are identical to the views of IEEE-USA. The fact is, "more money" will be there for very small time. And then jobs will be outsourced to the person who would have come here to do the same job. In the final analysis, Durbin-Grassley bill only delays the demand and supply meeting each other for couple of months. But in the new setup, Durbin-Grassley bill is making sure that the job is outsourced for ever. True, before the job is outsourced, there will be "more money" and "more jobs" for small window of time. But then, it will be NO job till eternity. Its like, you can either be satisfied with the golden egg each week or you could choose to kill the hen that gives you the golden egg.

    But H1b abuse will be minimised.
    You will then join a permanent job and whine about someone laughing at you when you pass though the hall-way or not looking at you in the meetings when you are talking. So the bottom line is, there will then be different kind of abuse and exploitation. What will you do then? Maybe you could go to Durbin-Grassley again after a year and ask them to pass another bill to protect us from the "abusive" way someone laughs when you walk though the hall-way. I am sure IEEE-USA will help to promote a bill to protect ALL of us from such an "abuse".




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  • bajrangbali
    06-07 01:08 PM
    5% per month is easily attainable with some options strategies. But not everyone has the temperament/stomach/psyche for active trading.

    Investment strategies of any kind - options, stocks, etfs failed miserably in the past couple of years. I dont think that argument stands well to justify against buying a house.

    Active trading is a double edged sword, if you lose you lose big..if you win..you bet even bigger..show me one ETF or mutual fund which did not lose money in this market. People are calculating how small they lost compared to their competitors.

    Also, timing the market is very dangerous...maybe even worse than buying a house in boom-time..those who made money in bull run or by betting against in bear run, most will agree there is no such thing as free-ride..you win some, you lose some..same logic some of the other posters tried to convey for buying a house..

    Risk is a risk no matter how we spin it...all those who have invested heavily in indian real-estate took risk as well..rates are flat now..granted we are comparing a developing market with a mature market..

    end of the day everyone is trying to make good of their investment with as little risk as possible...when it comes to home..family, kids adds into the equation...

    I would gladly lose 40-50K on a bad decision on house where I lived for many years with my family than invest in uncertain market and make bad decision there and lose it all on paper...ANYDAY

    I guess everyone atleast most learnt a lesson with this recession...every recession teaches control..i bet those of us who are here during the previous recesison agree..we all came out with something positive out of it upon survuval..

    Buying beyond the means is gone...now people are down to earth and making choices within their means...that is a positive take from this meltdown

    To take this thread further, posters who are looking to close the deal or negotiating or closed can post the info regarding location, price, lenders, agents which would help others who want to get in..




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  • SunnySurya
    12-18 10:45 AM
    Right, And u must the the enlightened one. And what do you mean by science: physics, chemistry , math or biology or theology

    Is there a difference between god and a religion. I have heard lots of bulls saying " religions are ways to get to the same god" . If that was true then preachers of Islam would not have preached to convert every one to Islam by force or otherwise.

    They would not have preached the following:
    WA ILAHU KUM ILAHUN WAHIDUL LA ILAHA ILLA HU WAR RAHMAN UR RAHEEM
    -- In other words, there is no god but Allah (implying gods of Jews, Christians, Hindus etc do not matter)
    or
    INN AL LAZEENA KAFAROO WA MA TOO WA HUM KUFFARUN ULAIKA ALAI HIM LA NAT ULLAHI WAL MALAAIKA TI WAN NASI AJMAEEN
    -- Meaning : Those who disbelieve, and die while they are disbelievers; on them is the curse of Allah and of angels and of all mankind.
    Now, because I don't share your "ideas" you want me to be cursed. What kind of God will do that.

    Allaha has 100 names including the names like Saboor (99th), Rasheed (98th), Waris (97th) etc. But where are the names of the Gods that others beleive in.

    You are saying all this out of sheer ignorance and you yourself dont know what you are speaking about your own creator. If you know little science you will go away from religion, if you know more science, you will come towards religion. You are a victim of the former.




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  • delax
    07-14 10:14 AM
    Eb2- I people are wrong when they think any steps taken by EB3-I are because of jealousy. I have contributed in each of IV effort knowing fully well that Eb3I is not going to be benefited by the effort. Still someone was getting the benefit. Now if EB3I want to do something, what is the issue? If a person from Eb2I with PD of 2006 feels that the reason behind efforts taken by a EB3 I person with PD of 2001/2002 is jealousy, then the EB2I person is being very narrow in his/her thinking. It should not take a huge amount of brainpower to realize the frustration and sadness the EB3 I person would be feeling. Irrespective of this I think a lot of people who contribute to IV campaigns are EB3I.

    Everyone irrespective of what category he or she is would very easily realize that Eb3I needs help, else it is going nowhere. By reading comments in this thread, my fear is coming true that the help needed may not come from IV. Once all EB2 people get their GC, there would be no further fight for EB3.

    Sure EB3-I needs help, but if the help is in the form of taking numbers away from EB2 and giving them to EB3 just based on the length of wait, then I have my serious objections to this proposal. I have said openly that I will object to it - I have never seen a post that says plainly - Yes EB3-I is stuck for 7-8 years and therefore they want numbers from EB2 because EB2 has moved ahead by 2 years. The irony is that all earlier posts imply this and talk about this request for handover in a very general way (75/25 break up, recession, lawyer input, etc).

    Visa recapture, country cap elimination is where the solution lies. That is the REAL help that EB3-Retro wants. Any short term fix purely out of sympathy, empathy, humanity, kindness is not recogniszed by law.

    I know people will pile on for speaking plainly and in a matter of fact manner, but I am amazed at the innuendo, implications and lack of straight talk.



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  • boldm28
    01-29 02:54 PM
    That is surely amnesia. What to say, one of my desi coworker who who got his citizenship recently has started "Why we need more people" . When asked about his case, "mine was different, because of y2k etc there were great demand around 1999-2000".

    IT HAPPENS ONLY in INDIA(N) ORIGIN PEOPLE




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  • unitednations
    03-26 02:32 AM
    http://immigrationvoice.org/media/forums/iv/temp/forum_attach/temporaryjob140denial.pdf

    The above link is one of those 35 straight denial decisions due to temporary job issue in 140.

    It was from california service center. I do know of another pretty large company which same thing happened to.

    However; this issue was confined to california service center and I have not seen it since.



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  • mariner5555
    04-09 11:29 PM
    we may be thinking that the points below are a worst case scenario but according to the famous economist Roubini - this is a likely one.
    on the lighter side - if this really happens then even the mighty GC would finally become just a card.:rolleyes:
    --------
    1. We are experiencing the worst US housing recession since the Great Depression and this housing recession is nowhere near bottoming out. Housing starts have fallen 50% but new home sales have fallen more than 60% thus creating a glut of new –and existing homes- that is pushing home prices sharply down, already 10% so far and another 10% in 2008. With home prices down 10% $2 trillion of home wealth is already wiped out and 6 million households have negative equity and may walk away from their homes; with home prices falling by year end 20% $4 trillion of housing wealth will be destroyed and 16 million households will be in negative wealth territory. And by 2010 the cumulative fall in home prices will be close to 30% with $6 trillion of home equity destroyed and 21 million households (40% of the 51 million having a mortgage being underwater). Potential credit losses from households walking away from their homes (“jingle mail”) could be $1 trillion or more, thus wiping out most of the capital of the US financial system.
    2. In 2001 it was the corporate sector (10% of GDP or real investment) to be in trouble. Today it is the household sector (70% of GDP in private consumption) to be in trouble. The US consumer is shopped out, saving-less, debt burdened (debt being 136% of income) and buffeted by many negative shocks: falling home prices, falling home equity withdrawal, falling stock prices, rising debt servicing ratios, credit crunch in mortgages and – increasingly – consumer credit, rising oil and gasoline prices, falling employment (now for three months in a row), rising inflation eroding real incomes, sluggish real income growth.
    3. The US is experiencing its most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression. This is not just a subprime meltdown. Losses are spreading to near prime and prime mortgages; they are spreading to commercial real estate mortgages. They will spread to unsecured consumer credit in a recession (credit cards, auto loans, student loans). The losses are now increasing in the leveraged loans that financed reckless and excessively debt-burdened LBOs; they are spreading to muni bonds as default rates among municipalities will rise in a housing-led recession; they are spreading to industrial and commercial loans. And they will soon spread to corporate bonds – and thus to the CDS market – as default rates – close to 0% in 2006-2007 will spike above 10% during a recession. I estimate that financial losses outside residential mortgages (and related RMBS and CDOs) will be at least $700 billion (an estimate close to a similar one presented by Goldman Sachs). Thus, total financial losses – including possibly a $1 trillion in mortgages and related securitized products - could be as high as $1.7 trillion.




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  • Macaca
    12-28 07:35 PM
    Unique India jail outsourcing unit set to begin (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12065555) By Soutik Biswas | BBC

    In a sprawling conference hall in a prison on the outskirts of India's southern city of Hyderabad, a dozen-odd prisoners are tapping away furiously on computer keyboards.

    It is an unusual sight: the prisoners, mostly sentenced to life for murder, are training to become workers in a unique outsourcing unit that is coming up at the impressive 43-acre Cherlapalli jail.

    They are in the middle of a typing accuracy and speed test, having been set a target of typing 35 to 40 words a minute. Other prisoners are shadowing them.

    Of the 2,000-odd inmates, nearly 70 are engineering graduates, say prison authorities.

    By end of January, they believe, India's first BPO [business process outsourcing] unit in a prison will begin working with 50-odd inmate "employees" from an in-house meditation centre which is being transformed into a factory.

    'Expecting orders'

    It will specialise in non-voice based, off-line outsourcing work like digitising records, legal documents, scripts, manuscripts and text books, and medical transcription, says K Mohan Menon, a manager with Radiant Info Systems, a US-based info-tech company which is assisting the venture.

    It helps that Hyderabad is a BPO hub, generating some 50 million rupees ($1.1m; �717,922) annually in revenues from non-voice based business alone.

    "We cannot let prisoners get online and communicate with the outside world. So we opted for an offline business. Some people and companies have already shown interest and we expect some orders soon," says prison chief G Jayawardhan.

    The convicts get a paltry 15 rupees [33 cents] per day for other work like making steel furniture or working on looms in the prison, but authorities expect to pay them 100 rupees [$2.2] to 150 rupees [$3.32] a day for working in the BPO unit.

    M Nageshwar, 37, a software engineer who worked with a company for 10 years before he ended up in prison, is leading the pack of convicts who are training to work at the unit.

    He was found guilty of killing his wife - he says she committed suicide - three years ago and sentenced to life.

    Mr Nageshwar has contested his conviction in the Supreme Court.

    "I am excited about the project. Educated people like me can easily slip into depression when they are incarcerated. It is a relief for convicts like me and a good opportunity to prove ourselves," he says.

    "Also, remember," he whispers, "an idle man's brain is a devil's workshop."

    G Rama Rao, who was sentenced to life 15 months ago for murdering a political opponent - he says it was a case of "political conspiracy" - echoes a similar sentiment.

    Mr Rao is a postgraduate in commerce from a leading university and owns a rice mill, which his family runs in his absence.

    "As an educated man, I can't find good work in a prison and get bored. I can't do all the factory work here. At my rice mill, I did my accounts on the computer. So I will use my skills to spend time better," he says.

    'Living in hope'

    Most convicts believe that their work experience with the outsourcing unit will fetch them jobs if and when they are released.

    Ravi Kumar, 26, was an army clerk for seven years, before he ended up shooting a colleague dead while he was posted in Indian-administered Kashmir.

    A commerce graduate, Mr Kumar says he has worked on computers in the past.

    "When I come out of prison, this is going to help me," he says.

    Twenty-four year old Mahesh Goud, who has been in the prison for 14 months in connection with the murder of a friend, is an electronics graduate.

    He worked in a hydroelectric plant as an electrical engineer for nearly two years, earning $280 a month till the crime.

    "I am feeling useful again. I am spending time more fruitfully. I hope this is a success," he says.

    Bank manager Ratna Babu, 53, was working with a state-owned bank before he was arrested on charges of misappropriation of money, a charge he denies.

    The case dragged on for 13 years before he was sentenced to six years in prison about a year ago.

    Mr Babu says he began learning computers only three months ago.

    "After I am free I will never get a job in a bank. I want to work for a BPO then. This training will stand me in good stead.

    Mr Goud agrees wholeheartedly.

    "It will help in my future. All of us will be released one day. All of us have to go out and find work then. This experience will help us. We all live in hope, don't we?"


    Outsourcing unit to be set up in Indian jail (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8677486.stm) By Omer Farooq | BBC



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  • nojoke
    05-03 02:33 AM
    NAR has been constantly changing their prediction. They predicted that we will be having growth in the later part of this year. Now they changed their tune. It is now 24% down. Nextmonth they will say 35% down. NAR is a joke
    http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/05/02/realtors-forecast-24-price-drop-for-california-houses/




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  • DoNotWorry
    04-08 12:18 PM
    This might be good for developing countries!!!! Don't worry guys, the world will evolve on new terms. As Bill Gates told, if workers can not come here, the Companies will go to that Countries.



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  • pani_6
    07-13 01:17 PM
    Guys I am getting the impression that EB-3- I did not act on IV action items..that's not true we have been actively involved in IV action items and have been contributing...




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  • SunnySurya
    08-06 12:21 PM
    Don't worry there is no solid basis for the lawsuit. Only lawsuit that can be filled , if at all, is BS+5 , which is USCIS ineterpretation of Advance degree equivalent.
    Source: A reputed lawyer known to us all on this forum.
    Mode of consultation: E-mail

    Next course of action: Unknown. But folks with US Masters or higher please PM me...


    Lot of our case was exactly like that - i was eligible for EB2 when my Eb3 labor was filed. Employer took advantage of my compromising situation ( H was having 390 days juice left)

    If Porting/Interfiling is taken off folks like me will be terribly victimized. I'm here for 9 years - my 1st labor was substituted , 2nd labor ( which should be Eb2 but filed in Eb3) took a round trip from Phily backlog elimination center and now i'm stuck in the Eb3-140 mess at NSC.

    My friends who are lucky enough & have filed fresh EB2 labor (based on BS+5, not MS also) have got till 140 approved and applied 485 as well due to EB2 being JUNE 2006 within 2 years of starting GC process.

    Porting/Interfiling must be there for genuine cases. If someone files a lawsuit against porting i'll file a counter lawsuit on discrimination grounds.



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  • truthinspector
    01-07 06:55 PM
    HAMAS fired 20 rockets into Israel as soon as the 3-hr humanitarian truce was over .
    Do you at least get it now? The real problem is HAMAS. For any Islamic conflict there is only one policy the Islamic radicals have, "Our Way or Suicide Bomb Way"..Guess what , every government in the world is not as spineless as Indian government. There are some like Israel who are going to stand up for themselves and rightfully so.


    Before blaming muslims try to understand the fact and know atleast a little history. When you have time just read this.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/07/gaza-israel-palestine

    news article written by Oxford professor of international relations Avi Shlaim served in the Israeli army.




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  • jthomas
    06-05 02:05 PM
    Appartment :-

    1. I lived in a appartment for last 7 years. I was able to change jobs whenever i wish as well as i was able to get 15-20% raise everytime i changed jobs.
    2. If i get a RFE for any reason or have to go back to india its very easy to pack and move rather than get stressed on selling the house at any price and going back.
    3. I completely agree with the above calculation of onwing a house v/s a apartment and its a lousy investment.
    4. Big personal savings+ good interest rate, can move anywhere anytime. Good interest rate, Can go out for a vacation for every quarter.

    House
    1. A place to live and show off.
    2. Plumbing + electrician + taking care of the lawn + paying tickets for taking care of the house + association fees + mortage + fire insurance(CA) + earthquake insurance (CA) + property tax + keeping up with the status != peace of mind.
    3. Personal savings = very little.

    If only good if one knows when to buy and when to sell and should be lucky most of the time. (+++), saw few people doing so but lost money after 8 years now. $280K went down to $65K.



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  • aadimanav
    07-13 09:35 PM
    Version 2 of the "Petition to Recapture Lost Visas" is added here:

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=262392#post262392

    Please share your views.

    Thanks,




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  • Pagal
    06-05 03:00 PM
    This is your justification for renting? ....Which is why you will always be paying owners like me for a roof to live under.

    Hello ValidIV,

    Good for you that you are making some money off the real estate investments....but why generalize?

    The right decision on whether to buy or rent depends on many factors including your financial capabilities, location, taxation and future plans.

    For some, renting makes financial sense, for others buying! :)



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  • rsdang
    08-11 05:19 PM
    If you don't laugh at the end of reading this then there's something wrong with you... Just imagine sitting in traffic on your way to work
    and hearing this. Many Chicago folks DID hear this on the WBAM FM morning show in Chicago. The DJs play a game where they award winners great
    prizes. The game is called "Mate Match." The DJs call someone at work and ask if they are married or seriously involved with someone. If the
    contestant answers "yes," he or she is then asked 3 random yet highly personal questions. The person is also asked to divulge the name of
    their partner (with phone number) for verification. If their partner answers those same three questions correctly, they both win the prize. One
    particular game, however, several months ago made the Windy City drop to its knees with laughter and is possibly the funniest thing I've heard
    yet. Anyway, here's how it all went down:


    DJ: Hey! This is Edgar on WBAM. Have you ever heard of Mate Match?

    Contestant: (laughing) Yes, I have.

    DJ: Great! Then you know we're giving away a trip to Orlando, Florida if you win. What is your name? First only please.

    Contestant: Brian.

    DJ: Brian, are you married or what?

    Brian: Yes.

    DJ: Yes? Does that mean you're married or you're what?

    Brian: (laughing nervously) Yes, I am married.

    DJ: Thank you. Now, what is your wife's name? First only please.

    Brian: Sarah.

    DJ: Is Sarah at work, Brian?

    Brian: She is gonna kill me.



    DJ: Stay with me here, Brian! Is she at work?


    Brian: (laughing) Yes, she's at work.

    DJ: Okay, first question - when was the last time you had sex?

    Brian: She is gonna kill me.

    DJ: Brian! Stay with me here!


    Brian: About 8 o'clock this morning.

    DJ: Atta boy, Brian.

    Brian: (laughing sheepishly) Well...

    DJ: Question #2 - How long did it last?

    Brian: About 10 minutes.

    DJ: Wow! You really want that trip, huh? No one would ever have said that if a trip wasn't at stake.

    Brian: Yeah, that trip sure would be nice.

    DJ: Okay. Final question. Where did you have sex at 8 o'clock this morning?

    Brian: (laughing hard) I, ummm, I, well...

    DJ: This sounds good, Brian. Where was it at?

    Brian: Not that it was all that great, but her mom is staying with us for a couple of weeks...

    DJ: Uh huh...

    Brian: .and the Mother-In-Law was in the shower at the time.

    DJ: Atta boy, Brian.

    Brian: On the kitchen table.

    DJ: Not that great?? That is more adventure than the previous hundred times I've done it. Okay folks, I will put Brian on hold, get this wife's
    work number and call her up. You listen to this.


    (3 minutes of commercials follow)


    DJ: Okay audience, let's call Sarah, shall we?


    (touch tones... ringing...)


    Clerk: Kinkos.

    DJ: Hey, is Sarah around there somewhere?

    Clerk: This is she.

    DJ: Sarah, this is Edgar with WBAM. We are live on the air right now and I've been talking with Brian for a couple of hours now.

    Sarah: (laughing) A couple of hours?

    DJ: Well, a while now. He is on the line with us. Brian knows not to give any answers away! or you'll lose. Sooooooo... do you know the rules of
    MateMatch?

    Sarah: No.

    DJ: Good!

    Brian: (laughing)

    Sarah: (laughing) Brian, what the hell are you up to?

    Brian: (laughing) Just answer his questions honestly, okay? Be completely honest.

    DJ: Yeah yeah yeah. Sure.. Now, I will ask you 3 questions, Sarah. ! If your answers match Brian's answers, then the both of you will be of To
    Orlando, Florida for 5 ! days on us. Disney World. Sea World. Tickets to the Magic's game. The whole deal. Get it Sarah?

    Sarah: (laughing) Yes.

    DJ: Alright. When did you last have sex, Sarah?

    Sarah: Oh God, Brian....uh, this morning before Brian went to work.

    DJ: What time?

    Sarah: Around 8 this morning.


    DJ: Very good. Next question. How long did it last?

    Sarah: 12, 15 minutes maybe.

    DJ:! Hmmmm. That's close enough. I am sure she is trying to protect his manhood. We've got one last question, Sarah. You are one question away
    from a trip to Florida. Are you ready?

    Sarah: (laughing) Yes.

    DJ: Where did you have it?

    Sarah: OH MY GOD, BRIAN!! You didn't tell them that, did you?

    Brian: Just tell him, honey.

    DJ: What is bothering you so much, Sarah?

    Sarah: Well, it's just that my mom is! vacationing with us and...

    DJ: Come on Sarah... where did you have it?

    Sarah: In the butt...

    (long pause)

    DJ: Folks, we need to take a station break




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  • DSLStart
    03-23 10:08 PM
    Man!!! thats getting nastier..
    Best bet for you is to hire an attorney to come out of this trap.
    Good luck!

    ok...this is something..

    apparently they called my employer also and has asked them to provide all details.

    All I-9s
    All performance appraisals
    my works schedule
    my vacation requests this year
    current salary
    supervisor details


    :)




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  • pmb76
    01-10 03:12 PM
    With Israel on the offensive and so many jihadis getting whacked - don't you think that there'll be a serious shortage of virgins in jihadi heaven :D




    validIV
    06-05 11:43 AM
    Sorry but no matter how you spin it, owning a home is better than renting. Renting is not smart. period. your money is gone every month. You are not getting that money back.

    When you own a home, the money goes towards a mortgage, and although most of it goes to interest at first, all interest paid is tax deductible which is a huge chunk of change every year. I get more money back as an owner than a renter and in the long run I save more AND own the home.

    30 year renter vs 30 year home owner? That is not rocket science.


    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    ------------------------------------
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.




    kshitijnt
    09-26 07:53 PM
    Well I tend to go by the facts:

    Bill Clinton was good for immigration , everyone was happy in his days

    Eversince GW Bush took over, the USCIS has been consistently hitting below the belt to immigrant communities , right from Sep-11-2001. Not one thing was done for overall improvement in GC process. By this I mean congressional laws.

    Another reason I worry about is that McCains advisors are in favor of H1 visa. At no point they mention that they will also support GCs for EB immigrants. This means if he comes to power, there will be high influx of H1Bs without anyone gettting GCs. This seems to be worse than what Obama is planning to do. Maybe a few of us will have to leave in Obamas policy but those who remain here will be better placed. Under McCains policy, there will be a huge pressure on wages by H1B competing against other H1B while there is no reform in GC process. These ladies Carly Fiorina, Meg Whitman are big time in favor of H1 visa so as "to bring down salaries" and so that "they' can make more money. This is their only rationale in supporting H1s. I am not against H1s but the GC process also needs to be fixed. If GC process is not fixed more H1s is not only detrimental to us but also to the newcomers.

    Also when we try to get HR5882, the people like Steve King and Lamar Smith come from republican party. McCain is less likely to have any leverage on these individuals even if he comes to power. All of a sudden they can not change their stance on immigration. Another senator in the same bucket is Jeff Sessions.

    You guys tell me, should we be more worried about Jeff Sessions and Steve King or Dick Durbin? It seems that Dick Durbin is picking on Indian offshoring companies but nothing to indicate that he is against immigration in general.



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